• Services
  • Projects
  • Publications
    • Reports
    • Scientific publications
  • About us
  • Coworkers
  • Work with us
  • Contact
  • Swedish
  • English

AquaBiota

- part of the NIRAS group

  • About us
  • Coworkers
  • Work with us
  • Contact
  • Swedish
  • English
  • Services
  • Projects
  • Publications
    • Reports
    • Scientific publications

State-of the-art methods to increase knowledge of response to climate change in the Baltic Sea

2019-02-13 AquaBiota

A new study integrates experimental data and distribution models to predict species patterns under future climate conditions.

Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions.

Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions.

By using a macroalga – herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus – Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae.

Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

The article can be read in full using the link below:
Kotta, J., Vanhatalo, J., Jänes, H., Orav-Kotta, H., Rugiu, L., Jormalainen, V., Bobsien, I., Viitasalo, M., Virtanen, E., Nyström Sandman, A., Isaeus, M., Leidenberger, S., Jonsson, P. R., Johannesson, K. 2019: Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns. Scientific Reports 9:1821.

Filed Under: Other, Research

Contacts


Antonia Nyström Sandman
Team Manager Stockholm
Management, PhD Marine ecology
antonia.sandman@niras.se

Martin Isæus
Project director
MD, PhD Marine ecology
martin.isaeus@niras.se

News

AquaBiota – part of the NIRAS group

Sep 01

September 1st, AquaBiota joined the NIRAS group! … Read more »

AquaBiota Gasell 2022

Aug 30

AquaBiota has been appointed as a Gasell Company … Read more »

‘Mixed species groups in mammals’, one of 16 classic papers celebrating 50 years of Mammal Review

Dec 16

A paper by Eva Isaeus and others is featured in a … Read more »

Application and EIA for Storgrundet announced

Dec 16

Earlier this year, wpd submitted an application to … Read more »

Webinars about large-scale sustainable offshore wind power

Dec 15

During November and December, AquaBiota conducted … Read more »

New paper on trend correlations for coastal eutrophication

Mar 31

Trend correlations for coastal eutrophication and … Read more »

See all posts »

Requests

mils.anbud@niras.se

 

AquaBiota Water Research ABWR AB

c/o NIRAS
Hantverkargatan 11B
112 21 Stockholm

Copyright © 2025 AquaBiota · An iGoMoon Website · Log in

We use cookies on this website to gather information how you use the website so we can improve the experience for you. By continuing to use our services, you are giving us your consent to use cookies.